SILVERUSD Long Setup
continuation above respected 13 SMA | 20th of Febuary 2026
Trade Overview
Silver has broken and closed above a previously respected 13-period smoothed moving average on the daily timeframe. Over the past month, price has consistently reacted to this moving average as dynamic resistance, making the recent break structurally significant.
The objective is to position with continuation momentum, targeting the upper boundary of a visible liquidation cluster resting near $83.50.
Trade Thesis
Break Above Respected 13 SMA
The 13 smoothed moving average has acted as a clean dynamic guide for price over the previous month and a half. Multiple rejections occurred above and beneath it suggesting relevance in algorithmic trading models.
The recent daily close above this level suggests a shift in short-term order flow, increasing the probability of short term break and continuation into resting orders.
Source: TradingView
Liquidity Target at $83.50
Above current price action sits a concentrated liquidation cluster ending at $83.50. This pool represents resting stop orders and breakout positioning that may act as a magnet if upside continuation develops.
The trade thesis assumes that price will seek this liquidity pocket before any meaningful retracement below the daily 13sma.
Source: Coinglass
Trade Execution
Entry is positioned following the confirmed daily close above the 13 SMA. Invalidation rests cleanly beneath the moving average, given its consistent respect over the past 6 weeks.
| Components | |
|---|---|
| Entry | price spike above 13 SMA |
| Stop Loss | Below 13 SMA on daily timeframe |
| Target | $83.50 liquidation pool top |
| Risk Model | Structure-based invalidation | 2.46R |
During & Post Trade
Initially price consolidated sideways which was expected since the trade idea was based around price not retracing below the 13sma before hitting tp. There was a short sweep on the lower timeframe, however the stop loss placement was effective under the MA.
Source: TradingView
Although the trade was successful, it can be noted that Silver continued to rally an additional 1.18% after take profit was met. In future settups it may be beneficial to keep the 'resting order' levels as a target, but closing the trade based on momentum and exhaustion on the lower timeframe (3-5 minute). Despite this case, it was still deemed successful since 2R+ was profited.
On the higher timeframe, Silver looks like it has room to retrace after digesting the 26% drop on the 30th of January. In similar future settups, it may be beneficial to sell half of the position rather than the full order, reduce stop loss to break even and let the rest of the position run at reduced risk.
Source: TradingView
This aligns nicely with the Liquidation Heatmap, since although we are in a gap following trade exit, high density resting orders sit near that 50% level.
Source: Coinglass